A Likely Republican Victory?

The Sun Tzu's Art of War cautioned the general against been involved in a long drawn battle for the reason that even the victor of a long drawn battle would find that he would have paid a high cost for the victory. This would also be true in the nomination battle between Democrats' presidential hopeful Obama and Clinton. While the dust has settled at the Republicans' side with John McCain emerging as the clear victor, the battle of attrition between Clinton and Obama showed little signs that a clear victor would emerge sooner than the last possible day. This is actually very bad news for the Democrats and I am inclined to think that while the Democrats had a good chance of winning the presidential election early this year before the start of the campaign due to the unpopularity of George Bush; the longer the presidential nomination drag on, the lower would be the chances for a Democrat victory in the presidential election.

There are three reasons why a long battle between Obama and Clinton is mutually destructive.

(1) While John McCain has emerged as the Republican's presidential candidate long ago, he can now focus his energies to start stategizing and planning for the presidential campaign. He has already made a headstart in searching for a Vice President candidate and I am sure that behind the scenes, he is already working to get the various interest groups to support him. As long as the Democrats' presidential nomination is not settled, both Obama and Clinton would have to spend their energies fighting each other than for the throne with McCain.

(2) The close fight between Obama and Clinton has also left the Democrats divided along the lines of race, gender and class. The longer the battle drags on, the longer the bitterness and whoever emerges the final victor might find it a huge challenge to mend the cracks within the Democrat supporters and win over supporters of the lost candidate. What would worsen the problem is that John McCain is perceived to be a moderate conservative so Democrats who have supported the Democrat candidate who lost the presidential nominations might end up voting for McCain out of spite or bitterness.

(3) The long battle between Obama and Clinton would also give the Republicans the leisure of time to study the weaknesses of their eventual opponent. Even as Obama and Clinton are busy undermining each other and pointing out each other's weaknesses, I am sure McCain's campaign team would be watching and taking notes and monitoring their behavioural patterns and how they respond to charges and criticisms and looking for that chink in the armour.

I would like a Democrat as President after the evil brought to the world by George Bush but if I am to place my bet, I would think that I have a higher chance of winning betting on John McCain.